EGYPT TO POSE A FUTURE THREAT?
James Hackett
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For years, there have been reports Egypt was buying missile
technology from North Korea. Persistent rumors in the 1990s
said there were dozens of North Korean technicians in Egypt
helping extend the range of Egypt's Scuds. In recent years,
there have been stories that Cairo was buying Nodong
missiles from North Korea. With a range of 800 miles, the
Nodong could be launched against any part of Israel from
deep within Egypt.
Every U.S. administration has denied or downplayed these
stories. Protecting Egypt is practically a cottage industry
at the State Department. After all, President Carter's Camp
David accords cemented relations between the U.S. and Egypt
and helped establish peace between Egypt and Israel. But it
did so at a cost to the U.S. taxpayer of more than $2
billion a year in aid to Egypt.
This was considered a good deal that would bring peace to
the Middle East. But now, after 23 years and some $50
billion in aid, peace is elusive and Egypt remains an
enigma. Even while accepting billions for not fighting
Israel, the Egyptian government continues trying to acquire
weapons that wouldbe most useful against Israel.
The most recent allegations appeared in the major German
daily newspaper Die Welt, which ran a story on June 22 about
an Egyptian arrangement with China to develop nuclear
energy. The German paper refers to an agreement signed in
Beijing in January during the visit of Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak. The paper says Egypt is getting Chinese help
to mine uranium in the Sinai Peninsula and in exploring ways
to enrich uranium.
Citing Western intelligence sources, the article suggests
Egypt is laying the groundwork for a nuclear weapons
capability, noting the calls of high-ranking Egyptian
officers for nuclear weapons to face Israel. As recently as
June 29, Lt. Gen. Samy Annan, Egypt's air defense chief,
told a Cairo press conference that there is a pressing need
for Egypt to possess a deterrent force.
The two legs of a deterrent are weapons of mass destruction
and ballistic missiles that can deliver them. Egypt has long
had chemical weapons and is one of the few countries that
has used them. In 1963, during the civil war in Yemen, the
Egyptian Air Force dropped phosgene and mustard gas on
royalist soldiers. This use of chemical weapons broke the
moratorium on their use that had prevailed in World War II.
Egypt bought its first ballistic missiles from the Soviet
Union, short-range Frog 7s and 180-mile range Scud Bs, in
the 1970s. In 1981, Egypt sold several Scuds with their
mobile launchers to North Korea. Through reverse
engineering, North Korea produced and tested its own Scud B
by 1984. That led directly to the North Korean Scud C,
Nodong and Taepo Dong missiles that are a threat to the
United States and its allies today.
In 1990, Egypt signed an agreement with China to help
modernize Egypt's missile production, but in recent years
Cairo's missile deals with North Korea have received more
attention. Last year, there were reports Egypt had bought 50
Nodong missiles from North Korea. The Egyptian government
denied the purchase, but Egypt has always denied its
dealings with North Korea.
U.S. intelligence sources confirmed the deal, saying it
involved the transfer of technology to produce the Nodong.
Members of Congress became interested, linking continuation
of billions in U.S. aid to Egyptian restraint in its missile
program. Alarmed, in July 2001 Cairo send a delegation to
Washington for meetings with administration officials.
These discussions were largely kept under wraps in
Washington, but the Jerusalem Post cited a U.S. official as
saying the administration was satisfied that it had
pressured Egypt to cancel plans to import 50 Nodong rocket
engines from North Korea. Some members of Congress, notably
Reps. Benjamin Gilman, New York Republican, and Tom Lantos,
California Democrat, were not satisfied, demanding more
openness from Cairo.
Last August, administration officials spoke of a new
coordinating mechanism between Egypt and the United States
to enable Washington to better understand what weapons Egypt
was buying. Then came Mr. Mubarak's trip to Beijing and the
agreement with China on nuclear cooperation, followed by
unsubstantiated reports that Egypt had received Nodong
missiles from North Korea and a separate shipment of 50
Nodong rocket engines via Libya.
Egypt continues to deny everything, but the concerns are
justified. The country is a hotbed of fanatics who want to
overthrow the government and create an Iranian-style
theocracy that is anti-U.S. and anti-Israel. The 1981
assassination of President Anwar Sadat shows what can
happen.
If Cairo wants to continue receiving large sums in U.S. aid
it must refrain from trying to obtain longer-range missiles
and nuclear weapons, and provide full transparency about its
dealings with suchcountries as North Korea, China and Libya.
The administration should insist on such transparency, and
should send the new Patriot PAC-3 missile interceptor, which
is now in production, to U.S. allies in the area. An
effective defense against Scuds and Nodongs will reduce the
demand for them.